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Home > Feature Articles > Health and Well Being Strategies

California Growth Projections are +25 Million by 2050~!

California's population is projected to reach almost 60 million people by 2050

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Earth global climate crisis Population growth is one of the main crisis points concerning our dwindling natural resources. Our globe has a tipping point and human population is a major factor. If we do not control our population growth voluntarily, our actions accumulate and nature controls it with disease, shortages of fresh water, shortages of food...etc. We have a choice...and we can teach our children to be responsible not only personally, but community-wise and globally. We all have a stake in population growth.

California Population Projections

California's population is projected to reach almost 60 million people by 2050, adding over 25 million since the 2000 decennial census, according to long-range population projections released in July 2007 by the California Department of Finance. From less than 34 million Californians counted in that census, the new data series shows that the state will pass the 40 million mark in 2012, and exceed 50 million by 2032.

California Cultural and Ethnic Populations

The new projections reveal that Hispanics are now expected to constitute the majority of Californians by 2042. By the middle of the century, the projections show that Hispanics will be 52 percent of the state's population, with Whites comprising 26 percent. Asians are expected to be 13 percent; Blacks, 5 percent; and Multirace persons, 2 percent. Both American Indian and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups will each make up less than 1 percent of the state by 2050.

California County Growth Projections

The new projections are also available at the county level. Los Angeles will continue to be California's largest county, topping 13 million by mid-century. With 4.7 million people, Riverside County is expected to be the second largest county at that time, followed by San Diego, with about 4.5 million residents. Orange County will be fourth largest, with slightly under 4 million people.

California City Population Projections

These rankings are also reflected in counties' numerical change between 2000 and mid-century. Los Angeles County will increase by the greatest amount, adding almost 3.5 million people. Riverside will follow closely, adding almost 3.2 million. San Bernardino's period increment is projected to be 1.9 million, followed by that of San Diego, close to 1.7 million. Four counties – Kern, San Joaquin, Fresno and Orange – will each grow between 1 and 1.5 million people by 2050.

California Relative Growth Projections

Sutter County is expected to more than triple in size and to experience the greatest percentage increase over the 50-year period – 255 percent. Other counties with notable percentage increases will be Yuba, Madera, Kern, and San Joaquin, demonstrating the shift in growth away from the coast that has been underway for several years. Only one county – Sierra – is expected to have fewer people, around 150 less, in 2050 than in 2000.

By 2050, the new projections indicate that Trinity County will have the highest percentage of Whites of any county, while Imperial County will continue to have the highest percentage of Hispanics. Alameda County will have the highest percentage of Asians; Santa Clara County will have the highest proportion of Pacific Islanders; and San Bernardino will have the largest proportion of Blacks. Finally, Alpine County will contain the largest percentage of American Indians, while Inyo County will continue to have the largest share of Californians identifying themselves as Multirace persons. At mid-century Whites will be the majority population in just 23 counties. Hispanics are projected to be the majority race/ethnic group in 22 counties.

Research Methodology

The California Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by age, gender and race/ethnicity. For this projection series, there are seven mutually exclusive race/ethnic groups: Hispanics and non-Hispanic American Indians, Asians, Blacks, Multirace persons, Pacific Islanders and Whites. A baseline projection assumes people have the right to migrate where they choose and no major natural catastrophes or war will befall the state or the nation. A cohort-component method traces people born in a given year through their lives. As each year passes, cohorts change as specified in the mortality and migration assumptions. New cohorts are formed by applying the fertility assumptions to women of childbearing age.



Edited by Carolyn Allen, owner/editor of California Green Solutions
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